Video Update - The Market is Turning to Real Estate

Exactly what we want

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Tim Melvin
August 26, 2025

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Editor’s Note: Tim is back from “granddaughter week” with a Premium-exclusive rundown of how and why the markets are turning to REITs, big time - and how that’s putting our Total Return REIT portfolio in a great spot. For the full update, instant access to the REIT Portfolio, and more, upgrade to Premium here.

We are well into the back half of 2025, and if you are watching closely, you can feel it. The shift is happening. Real estate is no longer in free fall. Interest rates have peaked. Capital markets are opening up again, albeit slowly. Across the commercial real estate landscape, we are finally seeing what we wait for in this business. Distress is beginning to meet capital. Sentiment is beginning to turn. Management teams are beginning to act.

Let's start with the big picture, because that is where this reset really began to take shape. Last Friday, Jerome Powell stepped up at Jackson Hole and delivered something that has been missing for the better part of two years. He gave us a glimpse of a dovish pivot.

He acknowledged that risks to employment are rising.

He said clearly that the policy rate is approximately 100 basis points closer to neutral than it was a year ago. He walked away from average inflation targeting and brought the Federal Reserve back to a more traditional flexible inflation framework.

It was subtle, but unmistakable. The easing cycle is coming. Not tomorrow, not recklessly, but the direction of travel is changing. The bond market knows it. Rate cut odds for September moved sharply higher. The VIX dropped to levels we have not seen since 2018. With that shift, the entire real estate cycle gets a new lease on life.

Publicly traded REITs are not waiting. The re-rating is already underway. The private market is still adjusting slowly, but public markets are doing what they always do. They are pricing reality in real time. That is where we are finding our edge right now.

We are not chasing narratives. We are digging deep into balance sheets, cash flows, real asset values, and management behavior. What we are seeing across our REIT portfolio is a mosaic of real-time value signals that tell us the reset is not just coming. It is already here.

Let's walk through the sectors and the names that are putting this story together.

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